Bitcoin over the last few months has pulled many into a strong bearish bias with the belief that selling all rallies ahead is the right move. I prefer to follow price action around all important levels rather than make assumptions.
People right now thinking "FED pivot" as "rate cut". But NOT YET as you said, Rate Hike Pause first.
FED FUNDs chart underneath Nasdaq chart and Bitcoin chart to illustrate
- what happened with Nasdaq when FED hike rate, then pause hike -- then Nasdaq rally (in 2000 and 2006) -- then FED cut rate due to recession, and Nasdaq going down with recession -- Then FED launch QE and big reversal in Nasdaq
- what happened with Bitcoin in Jan2019, when FED pause rate hike, Bitcoin form bear market low and rally -- Then FED cut rate due to recession, Bitcoin going down with rate cut and recession (ending in covid panic capitulation)-- Then FED launch massive QE and Bitcoin rally from $4,000 to $65,000
The markets in the months ahead could be more difficult to navigate than ever as many tend to hold onto their bias too long. The truth is most form their bias too late. Bitcoin most likely does not go straight up and straight down and the next two years could be incredibly difficult for many flip floppers.
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